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Yesterday, the opening session of the US stock market was a losing session for all three Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Stock futures have a slight uptrend. In other markets, prices remained flat. Oil and gold fluctuate around 76 USD/barrel and 1850 USD/ounce.
Bitcoin is still holding around $16,800. Altcoins rose slightly.
Tesla shares closed down 12% on Tuesday, a day after the company reported vehicle production and deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2022. The numbers represent a record for growth of 40. % in terms of annual vehicle deliveries, but they fell short of analysts’ expectations. Some argue that the stock price fell because investors were unhappy because Elon Musk spent so much time on Twitter instead of running Tesla.
So, Tesla’s China chief, Tom Zhu, was promoted to directly oversee the electric carmaker’s assembly plants in the United States as well as sales operations in North America and Europe. . That means Tom Zhu will become the most senior executive at Tesla after Elon Musk, with direct oversight of deliveries in all major markets and operations of the company’s main manufacturing hubs. company.
Major banks predict for 2023
Summary of the 2023 macro outlook from the largest financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and BlackRock. These are large investment companies, so their comments on the market are also noticed by investors. Here’s what they’re looking forward to next year:
First, Goldman Sachs predicts a low global growth rate of 1.8% in 2023, because of the negative impact of “the bumpy reopening in China” and the economic slowdown in Europe. Banks have consistently lowered their growth forecasts throughout the year, but Goldman still puts their outlooks higher than other banks.
The next institution is JPMorgan, which predicts 2023 to be a bad year for the economy. However, it is a better year for the stock market, the market will have a partial recovery. JPMorgan also believes that investors do not need to worry about the real estate crisis. Because house prices will be supported due to the limited number of houses for sale. The number of homes waiting for sale is still less than half of what it was in 2008.
The next very large institutional investor, BlackRock, also gave a worse view of the market. The company says that the period of four decades of steady performance and steady inflation is largely over. Basically, BlackRock believes that the market has changed and the rules in the market have also changed. So they don’t expect the bull market of the past to return and know that investors need a new strategy. The new rule introduced by BlackRock says that stocks, especially those in fast-growing industries like tech stocks, will fall even more in 2023. At the same time, we need to. accustomed to living with long-term inflation above 2%/year.
Several other institutional investors also made predictions for this year. Deutsche Bank expects inflation to be brought under control quickly. The bank also forecasts a CPI of 4.1% in the US. Similar to JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank also believes that the market is already priced at current inflation and that the stock will have a good start in 2023 if inflation continues to fall.
Next, investment firm Apollo Global Management saw deflation happening. The signs they see are a sharp drop in the cost of moving goods by water. Transportation costs by truck and air freight rates are similarly reduced. However, the company also believes that reducing inflation will not happen quickly but will take time. Apollo says that historically, it has taken two years for inflation to return from its peak to 2%.
Another note that Apollo mentions is that the quality of subprime credit (debt from people with subprime credit scores) is decreasing but not to the extent that there is concern about a credit crunch. They don’t think the economic situation can be bad, but it’s not as bad as 2008.
Finally, forecasts from HSBC also share their portfolio strategy for 2023 which will favor bonds. It can be seen that HSBC is quite cautious and only slightly invests in securities. Besides, they will invest heavily in other fields such as private companies, real estate, hedge funds.
In general, large institutional investors do not have a significant similarity to the economic situation in 2023. Some institutions are quite optimistic, others are not. Companies still see the economy slowing down and it’s been a bad year. These predictions are for reference only, an additional perspective for investors. So if you think this is an opportunity this is a time of accumulation, if you think this is a disaster this is your time to keep cash. It is important that investors understand themselves and have specific strategies in investment to be able to make the most appropriate decisions.
Bitcoin’s 14th Birthday
Let’s celebrate BTC’s 14th birthday since its first block was born.
Bitcoin was first mentioned on October 31, 2008 in the anonymous peer-to-peer payment protocol prospectus Satoshi Nakamoto. It began to be used on January 3, 2009 with the birth of the first Bitcoin block (genesis block). There is a message included in the first block of BTC as follows:
“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks” – Citing an article in the Times of London indicating that the British government has failed to stimulate the economy and is prepared to give launched a second bailout for banks, caused by the partial reserve banking system.
This is a proof that BTC was created to be able to build a currency, an independent financial system that is not related to any third party and is not managed by anyone, the amount of BTC is limited. and cannot be further printed as fiat currency.
The ideas of decentralized finance have been rekindled since 1973. And through many failed versions and finally there is a version that is Bitcoin was born and exists today. It has been 14 years since the first day, BTC has gone through a lot of ups and downs, from when no one noticed to now countries want a regulatory tool and companies or countries accept it. Bitcoin has become more and more mature, the network is bigger and stronger. To date, it remains the leading network and has the largest capitalization in the crypto market.
FTX and SBF lawsuit update
3, 2023, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) pleaded not guilty in New York federal court to eight charges related to the collapse of the former cryptocurrency exchange FTX. his and the hedge fund Alameda Research.
SBF was indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit fraud, individual charges of securities fraud and wire transfer fraud, money laundering and conspiracy to evade campaign finance regulations.
During the day, SBF’s lawyers filed a motion to seal the names of the other two individuals who secured Bankman-Fried’s bail. They said the case was too big and the disclosure of the guarantor put the SBF’s parents at risk, they received a lot of threats. The court accepted this motion.
Since the SBF has pleaded not guilty, the trial will begin on October 2, as defense attorneys will need time to review a large volume of relevant documents.
The good news for the victims is that the Bahamas government says it is holding $3.5 billion of FTX’s Bahamian subsidiary. The watchdog said the funds were being held on a “temporary basis” until the country’s Supreme Court directed them to be delivered to customers and creditors or to liquidators.
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