Bitcoin Continues To Rise, Repeat 2019?

Market situation

Yesterday, Bitcoin continued to rise to $ 21,000 and then corrected to $ 20,600. Altcoins also rallied and the crypto market cap is back at $1 trillion.

U.S. stocks also had a Friday session of gains, but gains were much lower than those of crypto. Gold and oil prices rose to 1923 USD/ounce and 80 USD/barrel.

In recent weeks, crypto and stocks have had a bearish correlation and have their own trends. When the crypto market grows, it will also attract a part of investors from the stock market. This will cause the correlation between the two markets to increase because there are investors in both markets and have similar reactions to both. Conversely, when markets deteriorate and investors gradually leave both markets, the trend of correlation also decreases.

JPMorgan Chase on Friday posted fourth-quarter profit and revenue that beat expectations as interest income at the bank jumped 48% on higher interest rates and loan growth. The bank’s earnings came in at $3.57 per share, higher than the $3.07 estimate. Similarly, revenue came in at $35.57 billion, well above estimates of $34.3 billion.

And Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan said that the bank is preparing for a potential recession in 2023. The bank’s projections include a scenario where the unemployment rate rises rapidly and a recession. mild recession.

Bank of America’s earnings report also beat estimates for top and bottom profits for the fourth quarter. However, with its prediction, the bank also left a credit risk provision of $1.1 billion. In addition, the CEO of this bank also predicted that in a bad case, the unemployment rate could rise to 5.5% at the beginning of this year and remain at 5% or more until the end of 2024.

The 5% unemployment rate is not a historic high for the unemployment index in the United States. This figure is just the beginning of previous recessions. Looking at unemployment projections, it can be seen that these two banks predict a very short recession if unemployment is only 5%. If unemployment rises above this number, a recession could be very bad.

The predictions of big companies and banks should be for reference only. It is important for investors to have an understanding of the investment they choose and a specific strategy. And average price investment is still Thuan’s first choice at the moment.

Bitcoin Rising Repeat 2019?

Following the launch of a Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Hong Kong, Samsung Asset Management said that it is considering launching a spot Bitcoin ETF on the city’s exchange if policies allow. . As can be seen, the need to invest in crypto seems to have returned.

Looking at 2019 history, BTC hovered around $3,000 before starting to rally in March. And by the end of 2019, BTC price had reached around $7,000, more than twice the price it was before the rally.

Many people believe that 2023 will be similar to 2019 when the market will have a slight recovery. However, if this is true, the recent rally of the past few days suggests that this year’s rise is earlier than in 2019.

After the FTX crash caused investors to massively withdraw BTC from centralized exchanges. This led to a sharp drop in the amount of BTC on exchanges. But starting from December to now, BTC on exchanges has been almost flat and has a slight uptrend. These signs are similar to ETH.

The number of derivative orders also plummeted after the crash of FTX. Recently, the volume of open orders showed signs of increasing slightly again.

Leverage has also decreased since November and is flat so far.

Since November, miners are not selling as much as they used to. The blue line is still far from the red line (when touching or crossing this line shows miners selling large amounts of BTC). The amount of BTC moving out of miners’ wallets is also low.

Profitable BTC rate has also left the green zone, which is believed to be a good accumulation zone. The increase in BTC price in the past days shows that the rate of BTC profit has also increased sharply.

Rising prices also make the market more optimistic. Even so, the rate of increase is not significant with BTC’s decline over the past year.