BTC Too Fast, Too Dangerous, Are You Profitable?

Market situation

Bitcoin price yesterday remained around 20,800 USD after rising to 21,000 USD. Altcoins have some significant gains in the past week such as SOL and return to the top 11.

CryptoQuant share In three hours someone/organization bought a total of $4 billion in Bitcoin futures. After that, the price quickly increased to $21,000 causing more than $87 million of short positions to be liquidated. Many people believe that this is the reason for the increase in the price of BTC.

As the price surged, more than $628 million of leveraged orders were liquidated, most of them short.

Alameda Research liquidated $1 million

Crypto intelligence company Arkham noted over $1 million in liquidation from Sam Bankman-Fried’s trading firm Alameda Research. The initial account had 9,000 ETH worth $10.8 million, with 20 million USDC and $4 million DAI as collateral. In total, the net balance of the account is $15.2 million.

At the same time, this wallet shows that at the time it maintained a short sale of 1.1 million USD in Ethereum. And when the price of ETH increased, this short order was liquidated, causing Alameda to lose 1 million USD. The interesting thing that Arkham paid out was that before the liquidation, someone moved some money from one wallet to another. This also affects the liquidation price.

Another share by Sentiment shows that the number of BTC wallets holding 100 BTC to 1000 BTC has increased significantly over the past eight weeks. This could be a sign that whales are also accumulating, institutional investors are also starting to return to the crypto market.

Besides, Santiment also shared that a large number of short orders of SOL coin were liquidated. It could also be the reason why SOL has grown stronger than other tokens.

Several theories have been put forward to explain the increase in the price of BTC. First, some people think that BTC is up because of the large number of short orders being liquidated. Others believe that information such as inflation, CPI has permeated the market, causing the price to rise. The rest said that the market was more optimistic because the situation of FTX was not as bad as investors thought. Especially recently there is news that FTX has recovered the amount of 5 billion USD, this is good news for the victims.

The judge responsible for overseeing the bankruptcy proceedings FTX has allowed the struggling crypto exchange to sell some of its assets to aid its efforts to repay creditors. The FTX assets to be sold include derivatives platform LedgerX, securities clearing platform Embed, and regional affiliates such as FTX Japan and FTX Europe.

Some sources say that the amount of money that can be obtained from the sale of FTX’s assets is up to 1 billion USD. In addition, the Bahamas government is also holding more than 3 billion USD. Plus more than 5 billion USD was found, the remaining assets of FTX are more than 9 billion USD, not a small number. However, it is still unclear how specific FTX’s financial hole numbers are.

SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci says his firm could buy back shares of the company it sold to FTX last September. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says there is a part of him that wants to punch both SBF and Digital Currency Group CEO Barry Silbert for their reported antics during crypto winter . In an interview with Bloomberg posted on January 13, Novogratz said that the collapse of FTX cost Galaxy directly about $77 million.

Recently, the market still has two trends of bull and bear. Bulls think the price will cool down to around $19,000 before continuing to grow. Bears think that the price will fall further to $12,000 and this is only a short rally but still prepare for another scenario if the price continues to rise. Here are some examples of bulls and bears.

This is also a proof that no matter how you calculate, the market has a way of surprising you. Therefore, we always need to be prepared for the various possibilities of the market.

Although history repeats itself, not everyone is profitable and making money from the market. Because one thing the historical price chart cannot show is the psychological fluctuations of investors at the time of price. As those who believe that 2023 will be similar to 2019, but the price increase of BTC earlier than 2019 has made these people suspicious.

Therefore, to invest in price average requires a great deal of consistency and faith in the long-term development of BTC and crypto. One of the factors that helps Thuan to be consistent is to follow the principles he sets out: Don’t trust anyone; self-study; crypto self-custodial; remember to take profit; capital allocation; do not borrow and zoom out, long term. Because each person has different circumstances, positions and conditions. Having investment principles will help investors be more solid on their journey.

Should take profit?

There are many of you who have averaged the price for many months and are profitable, asking if Thuan now takes profits or continues DCA?

Many of you put pressure on yourself to predict what the market will be like in the next few days, afraid of closing too soon or too late. Basically, no one will know until we look back.

In fact, taking profits is a very personal decision, you can take profits and see enough, you can close, in the bull or bear season, it can be closed. Many of you ask why DCA in bear season, except can DCA at low price, if not DCA in bear season, how to take profit in bear season.

Thuan himself will not take profits at this level, but that doesn’t mean you are either. Remember, investing must have a purpose, not investing just for the sake of investing. What is more important is the personal top, once reached, you can take profit on the part needed to accomplish your goal.

The market will always go up and down, but your life is time-lapse. You may think, if you miss the closing early, but your life will be happier, is the trade-off worth it? Thuan is very confident BTC will $100K+ one day, but still takes profits in 2021 to pay off the house and buy a car because that trade-off Thuan feels is worth it and is the motivation to continue DCA. For example: You can also think, is it worth taking a profit to have a happy Tet, only you can answer that question.