Crypto market 10/1 CHK: Bitcoin stays above 17,000, altcoins continue to recover strongly

Bitcoin holds steady in the $17,000 region as investors predict that inflation is on track to cool.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin price has reversed to a strong upside after weeks of price action in a downtrend. Since January 1, the peer-to-peer digital currency token has gained 5%, breaking through short-term resistance hurdles and attracting day traders to jump into smaller timeframes to join the uptrend. . After establishing a local top at $17,398, Bitcoin has turned slightly lower towards the area around $17,200 for the time being. The 24-hour trading volume continued to remain at a value of $16 billion.

The outlook previously mentioned that BTC bulls are likely to aim for the December monthly high at $18,381. After successfully bouncing off the 8-day EMA, the indicator used by short-term traders looking for an uptrending market, the uptrend is slowly becoming quite solid. A few more daily closes above $17,000 would be the final step to confirm the uptrend in the coming days.

The bullish argument could be invalidated if BTC closes daily below January’s opening price at $16,541. If this happens, the market is likely to return to a potential bottom, targeting the bear market low of 2022 at $15,547, representing a 10% drop from current market value. in.

Trader Dave the Wave told his 132,600 Twitter followers that a “technical move in the next month or two” could be enough to break the stiff resistance.

“Will a technical move in the next month or two be enough to break the long-term resistance line? Everything is still going in the right direction so far.”

Dave the Wave also told followers to watch out for how long Bitcoin stays below the Gaussian channel on a weekly basis. Gaussian channels are momentum indicators that can be used to identify cycle tops and bottoms. BTC is trading around $17,200 at the moment. The top crypto asset by market cap has gained around 3% in the past week.

On the altcoin side, Ethereum moved concurrently with Bitcoin’s bull run but with stronger momentum. On January 9, the market value of decentralized smart contract tokens increased by 4.5%. Ethereum price is currently trading around $1,325, around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, with the target to aim at the 61.8% FIb level at $1,457, representing a 9% increase in the current Ethereum price. .

The uptrend will be invalidated if ETH closes daily below $1,328. This could trigger a liquidation event, targeting $1,073, representing a 20% drop. Most of the top 100 altcoins continue their short-term rally. Leading the way are Aptos (APT) and Gala (GALA) with a bounce of more than 30% in the past 24 hours. On a 7-day timeframe, GALA is considered a project with outstanding performance, with an increase of more than 150%. Other projects such as Zilliqa (ZIL), Curve DAO Token (CRV), Solana (SOL), BitDAO (BIT), Filecoin (FIL), Terra Classic (LUNC), Kava (KAVA)… also increased strongly from 6-14 %.

Macro factors

The US stock market rallied strongly and then fell again in trading on Monday (October 9), as investors raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would shift to a monetary policy stance. worse, less tough. Crude oil prices rose more than 1% after China officially reopened, ending 3 years of closure to combat Covid.

The Dow Jones index rose 304 points at one point in the session, but ultimately closed the session with a loss of 113 points, or 0.34%, to 33,517.65 points. The S&P 500 Index also rose at the beginning of the session, but closed down 0.08% at 3,892.09 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.63% to close at 10,635.65, marking a second consecutive gain, helped by support from Tesla and other technology stocks.

US stocks rallied last week and kicked off the week in the green, as investors continued to lean towards the possibility that the Fed could slow the economy and drag inflation down without pushing the economy down. fall into recession. This hope helps increase risk appetite.

Monday’s session also marked the end of the first five trading days of 2023. During that period, the S&P 500 gained 1.1%. That’s a form of early market strength, which could bode well for the rest of the year, according to a classic US stock market indicator.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee calls it a “good omen” and says the market is likely to rally 20% this year. Speaking to CNBC, Mr. Lee said the Fed wants financial conditions to continue to tighten. “The Fed is worried and they want to make sure inflation is under control. But one change, especially since October, is that inflation has softened,” Mr. Lee said.

Investors await comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at an event in Sweden on Tuesday. Some strategists say Mr. Powell might say more time is needed to see inflation come under control.

Money markets are betting on a 77% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its policy meeting in early February. The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to be released on Tuesday. The year will determine interest rate expectations, according to LPL Financial’s chief global strategist Quincy Krosby. “The CPI report will play a role in determining Fed rate expectations in the interest rate futures market,” Ms. Krosby told Reuters news agency.

Kingsview Investment Managment portfolio manager Paul Nolte said some investors have sold off stocks after recent gains. “They are taking profits a bit before the CPI report is released this week,” Mr. Nolte said.

Depending on the CPI data, the bond market could force the Fed to raise rates one last time in February before moving to cut rates, said Fundstrat’s Lee.

Tesla shares rose 5.9 percent in the first session of the week after the electric-car maker signaled longer wait times for some versions of its Model Y in China. This could be a sign that Tesla’s recent drive to reduce car prices has stimulated demand.

In the energy market, glimmers of hope that the Fed will turn soft this year also supported oil prices in the first session of the week. In addition, the “black gold” price was also supported by the official reopening of China’s borders at the end of the week, increased risk appetite in the stock market, and a weakening of the market. of the USD.

At the close, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London increased by 1.37%, closing at 79.65 USD/barrel. WTI oil futures in New York rose 1.17%, closing at $74.63 per barrel.

“The gradual reopening of China’s economy will create a huge additional support for oil prices,” said Tamas Varga, expert at PVM Oil.

Last week, prices for both oils fell more than 8%, marking their worst first week of the year since 2016, on fears of a global recession. The information from China is the driving force for oil speculators to increase, although the gloomy outlook of the world economy this year continues to limit the price increase of this energy. The Chinese government forecasts there will be about 2 billion trips during the Lunar New Year holiday in the country, nearly double last year’s level and 70% of 2019 levels. In regards to oil, China has moderated. there is a second round of crude oil import quotas this year – according to sources familiar with the matter. With this quota grant, China’s total crude oil imports so far this year have increased by 20% over the same period last year.

The world gold price maintained its upward momentum, reaching an 8-month high, thanks to the weakening of the dollar despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reaffirming the view that it is necessary to maintain a tough monetary policy to against inflation. Contrary to the increasing trend of the world gold price, the domestic gold price this morning (January 9) decreased by nearly 1 million dong/tael.

At the close of trading session on Monday in New York market, spot gold price increased by 5.8 USD/oz, equivalent to more than 0.3% increase, closing at 1,872.5 USD/oz. During the session, there was a time when the gold price reached 1,882.6 USD/oz, the highest since the beginning of May 2022 – according to data from Kitco.

The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, this morning fluctuated around 103.1 points, from 103.6 points yesterday morning.