Crypto market on September 15: Ethereum officially launches The Merge, altcoins and US stocks prosper

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2022-09-19 02:16:06

Today the Ethereum network consolidation officially took place, altcoins showing slight signs of improvement.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin has started to recover from levels below $19,000 and approached the $24,000 resistance. However, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, accompanied by the downtrend line, have stopped the uptrend. As a result, the price was rejected around the $22,000 mark as BTC failed to break above these key resistance levels. The trading session on September 15, Bitcoin is at $ 20,200, not much changed compared to the previous day. The 24-hour trading volume plummeted 19%, now reaching a value of nearly $40 billion.

Bitcoin price movement on September 15, 2022

Bitcoin has started to recover from levels below $19,000 and approached the $24,000 resistance. However, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, accompanied by the downtrend line, have stopped the uptrend. As a result, the price was rejected around the $22,000 mark as BTC failed to break above these key resistance levels.

If BTC dips below the $18,000 region, the market could trigger another drop and potentially drag the price down to $15,000. The $20,000 level is a very important psychological and technical level, which is currently becoming a pivot point for BTC’s rise or fall.

The RSI is showing a possible reversal, with bearish divergence as prices make higher highs, but the momentum indicator is showing the opposite. For now, the decline has paused at the $20,000 support. However, the market structure is still tilted to the downside, so BTC is still likely to fall below $20,000.

In this case, the $18,000 area could be tested again to determine if Bitcoin will make a new low. Current market prices tend to stay above fair value during bull markets and early bear markets. In contrast, during the final capitulation phase of a bear market, market prices tend to fall below fair value for several months. During this period, many participants are losing money and tend to sell their coins to avoid further losses.

In previous cycles, the end of a bear market and the beginning of a long-term uptrend occurred when the market price crossed the fair value level, and this signal has occurred recently. However, it is important to analyze other factors such as the macroeconomic and geopolitical state of the world, as well as futures market sentiment, for a more accurate analysis.

With Bitcoin still trying to hold the price above the $20,000 support, the altcoin market has also shown signs of recovery after the sharp decline. In particular, Ethereum today welcomes an important event called The Merge. ETH price is currently trading around $1,650 with a trading volume of $23.49 billion.

Top 10 tokens by cryptocurrency market capitalization September 15, 2022

Tokens in the top 10 by market capitalization are in the green with a slight recovery of 1.5 – 3%. Many projects in the top 100 have rebounded slightly in the past 24 hours. In which, Celsius (CEL) stood out when it recorded a spike of more than 28%. Other altcoins such as Ethereum Classic (ETC), Ravencoin (RVN), Compound (COMP) are also up more than 5% on the day.

Market sentiment after the release of the US CPI in August was not much volatile. The FGI index continued to remain at the Fear area with 28 points.

Cryptocurrency Market FGI Index September 15, 2022

Macro factors

The US stock market rallied again in Wednesday’s trading session, as investors bounced back from the steepest sell-off in more than two years on Tuesday. Oil prices also increased sharply due to concerns about tight supply.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 30.12 points, or 0.1%, to close at 31,135.09 points. The S&P 500 index rose 0.34% to 3,946.01 points. The Nasdaq index rose 0.74% to 11,719.68 points.

The modest recovery came after a market sell-off on Tuesday – as the Dow Jones lost nearly 4%, the S&P 500 lost 4.3%, and the Nasdaq “lost” 5.2%, marking the first session of the week. The worst drop in US stocks since June 2020.

Currently, the market is counting on the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates with a round jump of 1 percentage point at its meeting scheduled to take place next week. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, investors are betting on a 22% chance that this “super huge” interest rate jump will be applied. The market is still leaning more towards the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.75% at this meeting.

In such a context, many investors and analysts fear that US stocks may fall to June lows or even deeper.

More inflation data is released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, and that is the producer price index (PPI). The data showed no deviation from the forecast, thereby providing some relief to investor sentiment, as a reassurance that inflation is actually de-escalating, albeit very slowly. However, inflation in the US is still very high compared to the 2% target set by the Fed.

Brent crude oil futures on the London market increased by 1.61 USD/barrel, or 1.8%, to close at 94.78 USD/barrel. WTI oil futures in New York increased by 1.89 USD/barrel, or 2.1%, to close at 89.2 USD/barrel.

The “kick” for oil prices to go up this session is a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The organization based in Paris, France forecast that the deceleration of the global economy, especially China, will make the world’s oil consumption demand flat in the fourth quarter of this year.

However, the IEA also believes that there will be a large shift from gas to oil for heating this winter due to the high price of gas. This shift would result in an average of 700,000 barrels of oil per day being used for global heating between October 2022 and March 2023, more than doubling from the same period last year. This forecast, coupled with expectations of a tightening in oil supply, helped oil prices rally after Tuesday’s decline.

In a report Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also forecast that global oil demand in 2022 and 2023 will be stronger than forecast as there are signs that major economies are growing more resilient than expected to challenges such as high inflation.

However, oil prices are still facing downward pressure from the risk of economic recession in the US and Europe, as well as the slowdown of the Chinese economy under pressure from the Zero Covid policy and the real estate crisis. movables. In addition, the tightening monetary policy globally and the strong appreciation of the USD also make it difficult for oil prices to break through.

The world gold price continued to slide below the level of 1,700 USD/oz because of the fear that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will sharply increase interest rates next week. The domestic gold price this morning (September 15) was “fixed”, the difference with the international gold price continued to be over 18 million dong/tael.

At more than 10 am Vietnam time, the spot gold price in the Asian market stood at 1,692.6 USD/oz, down 5.4 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of more than 0.3%, compared to the close of the night session. passed in the US. In Wednesday’s session in the New York market, spot gold price dropped by 4.9 USD/oz, or nearly 0.3%, to 1,698 USD/oz.

The weakening USD helps relieve downward pressure on gold prices, but worries about rising interest rates still haunt the minds of investors in the precious metal market. Investors and experts are predicting the Fed will raise interest rates by at least 0.75 percentage points at its meeting on September 20-21.

The Dollar Index measuring the strength of the dollar this morning fluctuated around 109.7 points, slightly up from the closing level of Wednesday’s session in New York, but no significant change compared to yesterday morning. In the US session last night, the index fell 0.2%. Last week, the index rose to nearly 111 points, the highest in 20 years.

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