Crypto Markets 8/12 CHK: Bitcoin struggles to return to the $17,000 mark, the market waits for macro news

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2022-12-08 21:31:43

Bitcoin failed to regain $17,000 mark as investors waited for macro signals from CPI data and Fed rate hike decision.

Cryptocurrency Market

Market data shows that Bitcoin since bottoming out at $16,678, its lowest since Nov. 30, hasn’t seen much volatility. As of yesterday, BTC is still trading around $16,800.

Bitcoin Price Movement Last 24 Hours

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, said: “Bitcoin was unable to hold the support and started falling.”

“I am waiting to join long. Chances are $16,500 will be the next target or BTC is likely to reclaim $16,900.”

Meanwhile, the popular Twitter trader, Profit Blue, has predicted the possibility of the BTC price falling further in the near future.

Bull analyst, again eyeing the possibility of reclaiming $17,000 in shorter timeframes.

Earlier, the Binance order book chart from Material Indicators revealed strong support lying around $16,500.

With the Bitcoin market remaining calm compared to the intense volatility in November, analysts continue to look for upcoming macro signals, including the released US Consumer Price Index (CPI). father on 12/13. For trading firm QCP Capital, there is reason to believe that the numbers may favor riskier assets as inflation tends to decline.

“Retailers have been clearing inventory on the back of a consumer slowdown, through Black Friday promotions, which will affect the November CPI to be released next week.” .

In the short term, the altcoin market was on fire as Bitcoin failed to sustain the $17,000 region.

Top 10 tokens leading the market on December 9, 2022

ImmutableX was the worst performing project of the day, with a drop of over 9%. Followed by Axie Infinity (AXS) at 8.5% loss of value. However, in the past 7 days, AXS is still recording an increase of more than 18%, with trading volume in the market skyrocketing. Other projects in the top 100 such as Apecoin (APE), 1inch Network (1inch), Celo (CELO), NEAR Protocol (NEAR), Dash (DASH), Cronos (CRO), Fantom (FTM)… also dropped from 6- 6 7% in the last 24 hours.

The 2nd largest token in the market, Ethereum (ETH) also failed to escape its short-term decline, with its failure to hold the $1,250 mark, losing 3.14% of its value on the day. The smart contract token is currently trading around $1,224.

Investor sentiment followed a strong downward momentum, the Greed and Fear Index (FGI) plunged to the Extreme Fear zone at 25 points.

Macro factors

The US stock market fell sharply in Tuesday’s session (December 6), following the sell-off of the previous session, when the fear of an economic recession overshadowed investors’ minds. Crude oil prices also continued their strong downtrend, with Brent oil prices no longer holding the $80 mark per barrel.

At the close, the S&P 500 index fell 1.44% to 3,941.26 points. The Nasdaq index fell 2% to 11,014.89 points. The Dow Jones “evaporated” 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to 33,596.34 points.

This is the fourth consecutive decline of the S&P 500, and the seventh loss in the past 8 sessions of this index. Dow Jones has had 2 consecutive losing sessions up to this session, with a total loss of more than 830 points.

Leading the decline were media and banking stocks, but the group that tends to lose the most when an economic downturn occurs. After the CEO of Paramount Global warned that advertising revenue in the fourth quarter would fall, the company’s stock price fell nearly 7%. Shares of Morgan Stanley slid nearly 2.6% after news that the investment bank was about to cut 2% of its global staff – a continuation of a recent trend of layoffs in the banking-finance industry. Big-growth tech stocks like Nvidia, Amazon and Meta Platforms also fell, weighing on indexes.

“We’re basically going to see another big layoff this week. That only increases the likelihood of the economy hard landing in 2023 and falling into a deeper recession than initially anticipated,” 50 Park Investments CEO Adam Sarhan told CNBC.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon agrees that a recession is imminent. In an interview with CNBC, Dimon said inflation would push the US economy into a recession. Inflation and its effect on consumers “will most likely skew the economy and trigger a recession as shallow or as deep as people fear,” Dimon said.

Within the first two trading sessions of the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.2%, while the Nasdaq lost 3.9%.

The market is now expecting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at its regular monetary policy meeting next week. However, investors are concerned that the Fed’s deceleration from the interest rate jump of 0.75 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points will not be enough to prevent the economy from falling into recession in 2023.

In the energy market, Brent crude oil futures in London slid 4.03% to close at $79.35 per barrel. WTI oil futures in New York fell 3.48% to $74.26 per barrel.

This is the lowest price for both oils since the beginning of the year. This session was also the session with the strongest percentage drop of Brent oil prices since the end of September.

“The sentiment in the market is becoming more pessimistic. We think WTI oil price will fall to the area of ​​60 USD/barrel. $80 a barrel would be a new high, and I would be surprised if oil prices rose above that,” said Eli Tesfaye, senior strategist at RJO Futures.

In addition to the US economic recession, oil prices were also under pressure from the negative economic data in China and the gloomy state of the European economy. Service sector activity in China has fallen to a six-month low, while economies in Europe have been increasingly drained by high energy prices and rising interest rates.

Many Chinese localities are easing anti-Covid regulations, raising hopes that the country is moving towards reopening and therefore oil demand will pick up. However, this hope is not enough to help oil prices recover.

“Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short-term, driven by news on the Covid situation in China and central bank policy in the US and Europe,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. .

The market is also assessing how the price ceiling of $60/barrel imposed by the Group of 7 developed industries (G7) on crude oil exported by sea will have an impact on the country’s oil output. this. Kpler’s Matth Smith said that so far, the price ceiling “has not had an impact on the flow of Russian oil.”

“Russian oil exports by sea and Russian oil production have not decreased yet. Along with concerns about rising interest rates, oil prices are under downward pressure from the overall risk aversion across the market,” Mr. Smith said.

For its part, Russia has announced that it will not sell oil to any buyers who comply with the price ceiling set by the G7. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the country’s crude oil and condensate production in the first 11 months of the year increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 488 million tons.

Novak forecast that Russia’s oil production will decrease slightly after the latest Western sanctions against Russian crude oil are implemented. Along with the price ceiling of G7, the embargo on Russian crude oil transported by sea has been officially implemented by the European Union (EU) since December 5.

In the New York session on Tuesday, spot gold price increased by 2.1 USD/oz, closing at 1,772.2 USD/oz.

Gold prices stabilized when the dollar fell after several consecutive gains. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD, fell to 105.6 points, from 106.3 points in the previous session, while investors waited for the monetary policy direction that the Fed would give at its meeting on 13-14. /twelfth.

The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust unexpectedly net bought gold on Tuesday, after a period of continuous net selling. This session, the fund net bought 2.6 tons of gold, raising the holding level to 906.1 tons of gold. Earlier, in the Monday session, the fund net sold nearly 2 tons of gold.

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