Cryptocurrency market on October 17 CHK: After the CPI wave, Bitcoin hovers around $19,200

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2022-10-19 16:53:43

The idea that Bitcoin will have a drastic change after the US CPI announcement event in September, but the current situation is contrary to predictions when Bitcoin still returns to the previous direction.

Cryptocurrency Market

Market data shows that Bitcoin, after a strong momentum since Thursday (October 13), continues to hover around the $19,200 threshold. As of now, the largest cryptocurrency in the market only has a 24-hour trading volume of $18 billion, up 17% from the previous day.

Bitcoin price movement on October 17, 2022

After the US economic data caused a series of fakeout events featured during the week, Bitcoin has returned to its original position and for the time being still shows no signs of leaving the established range.

As for Michaël van de Poppe, KOL in the crypto space, the comment is on when the upcoming volatility will return to cryptocurrencies.

“It is only a matter of time until massive volatility returns to the market after four months of accumulation, the majority still think the market will continue to go down, but I think the odds are turning in favor. bullish side”.

The macro metrics of the week show that BTC is still likely to set new highs. Analyst Il Capo of Crypto continues to maintain his view of a bull market rally. This trend could push BTC price up to $21,000 before continuing to decline.

October is said to be a buffer month for recovery with the name “Uptober”. However, Bitcoin ended its second week with a 1.5% drop from the start of the month, its worst performance since 2018 and far below its 40% gain in 2021.

Activities of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization over the past 24 hours

During today’s trading session, the altcoin market showed a slight correction signal. Leading the decline is Huobi Token (HT). After recording a gain of more than 50% for the week, the project has begun to correct as it has dropped 10% in the last 24 hours.

TerraClassicUSD (USTC) also dropped more than 8% after a strong rally for the week. Other projects such as Elrond (EGLD), XRP (XRP), Filecoin (FIL), Chiliz (CHZ)… also turned down slightly from 3-5% during the day.

The top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are the opposite when there is not much volatility. Most notably, XRP saw a 3.33% decline on the day and 11.8% on the week.

Market sentiment is still showing bleak signs. The Greed and Fear Index continues to be deep in the Extreme Fear zone with a bottom of 20.

Cryptocurrency Market FGI Index October 17, 2022

Macro factors

Over the weekend, US stocks fell sharply in Friday’s trading session (October 14), just one day after the historic “reverse” from a deep decline to a strong increase on Thursday, in the context of Investors continue to align expectations about inflation. Fears of a global recession once again pushed crude oil prices down.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 403.89 points, or 1.34%, to 29,634.83 points. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.37% to 3,583.07 points, marking the 7th drop in the past 8 sessions.

The Nasdaq index “evaporated” 3.08%, to 10,321.39 points. The biggest contributors to this Nasdaq decline were electric vehicle stocks Tesla and Lucid Motors, with declines of 7.6% and 8.6% respectively.

Closing a volatile trading week, the Dow Jones “pocketed” ended up 1.15%. However, the other two metrics all finished the week in red, with the S&P 500 losing 1.55% and the Nasdaq losing 3.11%. This week also saw the second time this year that Nasdaq fell into a bear market, also known as a “bear market”.

Markets fell to a session low after the University of Michigan released the results of a consumer survey that showed inflation expectations rising – a development that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may be looking at. closely monitored. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell the most because big-growth companies were also the most sensitive to rising interest rates.

The Dow Jones Index Volatility This Week

Yields on US Treasuries jumped, with 10-year yields surpassing 4% for the second time in two days, as investors reacted to higher inflation expectations.

US stocks have struggled throughout this week as investors pored over fresh inflation figures. Statistics show that inflation in the US is still hot, which is considered the basis for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue to sharply increase interest rates to combat the escalation of prices.

On Thursday, the market turned sharply from a deep decline to a strong gain, with the Dow ending the session up 827 points despite having fallen more than 500 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 gained 2.6% on Thursday, ending a six-session losing streak, while the Nasdaq also gained 2.2%. According to data from SentimenTrader, this was the fifth-largest reversal in the history of the S&P 500 and the fourth for the Nasdaq.

This reversal occurs when investors move from worrying about interest rates to letting them go. But then on Friday, concerns about interest rates, inflation and recession overshadowed investors’ minds, causing the market to have another strong losing session.

“With the core consumer price index (CPI) still moving in the wrong direction and the labor market still strong, there are no conditions for the Fed to shift policy. Only when the Fed moves, will the stock market have the conditions for a sustainable recovery,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management in a report cited by CNBC.

“In addition, with persistently high inflation and the Fed continuing to raise interest rates, it is likely that successive rounds of monetary policy tightening will push the US economy into a recession, weakening the outlook for corporate profits. “.

Brent crude oil futures in London fell $2.94/barrel, or 3.1%, to $91.63/barrel. WTI crude oil futures in New York slid 3.5 USD/barrel, or 3.9%, to 86.51 USD/barrel.

Fears of an economic slowdown and a decline in global oil demand, especially in China, are putting downward pressure on oil prices. This effect outweighs the support for oil prices from the decision to cut oil production announced by the OPEC+ alliance last week. For the whole week, Brent and WTI oil prices fell 6.4% and 7.6%, respectively.

The dollar’s appreciation on Fed interest rate expectations is also a source of downward pressure on oil prices this week. On Friday, the Dollar Index rose 0.8%.

The number of new Covid cases in China is increasing sharply again after the country’s national day holiday. China is still pursuing a draconian Zero Covid anti-epidemic policy, despite the obstacles this policy poses to economic activity, and the resulting demand for oil.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2023, warning of the risk of a global recession. Talking about OPEC+’s decision to cut output quota by 2 million b/d, the IEA believes that the actual cut will only be about 1 million b/d, because the actual OPEC+ output is already lower than the output already. .

Spot gold price in the Asian market at nearly 10 am Vietnam time stood at 1,850.6 USD/oz, up 4.3 USD/oz compared to the closing session last week in New York. This price is equivalent to 48.3 million VND/tael if converted at the USD exchange rate sold at Vietcombank.

Last week, the gold price fell 2.9%, marking the biggest weekly loss in nearly 2 months, under pressure from the prospect of rising interest rates, besides the USD exchange rate and US Treasury bond yields went up. .

The dollar on the international market this morning fell slightly, with the Dollar Index falling to 113 points, from 113.3 points last week. However, this index has increased by nearly 3% in the past 1 month and increased by more than 20% within 1 year.

The data released last week showed that inflation in the US was still hot after 5 consecutive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The market is therefore betting on a near 100% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a jump of 0.75 percentage points at the upcoming meeting. Some investors even considered the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 1 percentage point.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates with a jump of 0.75 percentage points in early November is 99.7%. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the December meeting is 74%. Next, the Fed could raise rates with a shorter jump in February and March.

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