Cryptocurrency Markets 11/19 CHK: Bitcoin stands still, altcoins see a sharp drop in trading volume and open interest (OI).

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2022-11-19 20:07:32

The market closed the last session of the week when the market was more worried about the consequences of the collapse of FTX.

Market data shows that Bitcoin is still unable to break $17,000 to support. This trend has repeated continuously for nearly a week. For now, BTC price is still hovering around $16,600 with weak repulsion. The daily trading volume was only 21.5 billion USD, decreasing sharply compared to the previous days.

Bitcoin Price Movement Last 24 Hours

For analysts, the outlook remains bleak, as already bleak forecasts have worsened in the face of recent events. All crypto assets will continue to underperform until much of the uncertainty is cleared. The comments suggest that Bitcoin and Ether are now likely to continue to decline, reflecting the impact of FTX on the crypto space during this sensitive time.

Updated Elliott Wave Theory Forecast from June, Bitcoin’s worst target is currently $12,000 and ETH is in the $800 region. Unpredictable price action with new year lows has been a feature of previous bear market sell-offs.

Meanwhile, prominent trader and analyst, Cantering Clark, noted that if the current bear market mimics the global financial crisis, heavy losses will still occur.

“Lehman’s bankruptcy was the culmination of the 2008 financial crisis. It was the catalyst that brought the market to a temporary bottom, and then the stock went on to crash another 40%. Therefore, never let your guard down.”

These concerns are increasingly reinforced as trading volume and open interest (OI) decrease on both centralized (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX).

“By far, CEX derivatives trading volume has been impacted the most. Combined futures open interest is now back to pre-2021 levels, a huge setback for the industry.”

On the DEX side, it said the data “implies that the entire cryptocurrency pie is falling en masse. DeFi TVL overall is currently less than a quarter of last year’s high.”

Top 10 tokens by market capitalization on November 19, 2022

When Bitcoin stands still, altcoins are free to run. Leading the way is Chiliz (CHZ) with a bounce of more than 13% on the day. CHZ’s momentum is fueled by the opening event of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar tomorrow. Following closely behind, with a profit of more than 12% is Algorand (ALGO).

Other projects such as Chain (XCN), OKB (OKB), Trust Wallet Token (TWT), ApeCoin (APE), … increased from 5-6%.

The Greed and Fear Index (FGI) indicates that the overall market sentiment remains negative – 23 points deep in the Extreme Fear zone.

Cryptocurrency Market FGI Index November 19, 2022

Macro factors

U.S. stock markets rallied on Thursday, November 18, as investors pondered tougher statements from Federal Reserve officials, but completed a loss week. Crude oil prices continued to fall sharply on worries about Chinese demand and rising interest rates in the US, also ending a week of losses.

At the close, the Dow Jones index rose 199.37 points, or 0.59%, to close at 33,745.69 points. The S&P 500 index rose 0.48% to 3,965.34 points. The Nasdaq index rose 0.01% to 11,146.06 points.

All three indexes fell this week, of which the Dow Jones dropped 0.01%; The S&P 500 fell 0.69%; and Nasdaq slid 1.57%. However, from the beginning of the month, all three indexes are “green”.

Markets struggled for much of the day, with the S&P 500 mostly flat as investors began to adjust expectations following the gains since the October inflation report was released. Homrich Berg’s chief investment officer, Stephanie Lang, says this week is the week when investors “return to reality”.

“After a strong market rally on the back of better-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) data, the market is mulling over the current data again, and those data are bringing the market back to reality. economy,” said Ms. Lang.

“We see that the recovery following the CPI is not guaranteed by the fundamentals… The market is also reflecting on an economic ‘soft landing’, but we don’t think that’s the case. is possible. So, when Fed officials reaffirm their stance, the market will start to correct.”

On Friday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed confidence that policymakers can control inflation without causing too much damage to jobs.

On Thursday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard said: “policy interest rates have not yet reached the zone that can be considered tight enough”. He signaled that the right range for the federal funds rate could be 5-7%, much higher than is reflected in current market asset prices.

“We continue to believe that investors should pay more attention to actual economic data and not pay too much attention to what the Fed has to say. The numbers will show where inflation is going, and what the Fed says reflects where it has been,” said Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli. “That means investors are getting tired of ‘battling’ the statements of Fed officials every day, and the worry here is that there may be 2-3 more batches of CPI data. Officials just stopped reminding the market every time a recovery looms.”

Brent crude oil futures in London fell $2.16/barrel, or 2.4%, to $87.62/barrel. WTI oil futures in New York fell $1.56/barrel, or 1.9%, to $80.08/barrel.

For the whole week, the price of Brent oil fell 9% and the price of WTI fell about 10%. This is the second consecutive week of declines for both oils.

China, the world’s largest crude oil importer is still dealing with a sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 infections. Meanwhile, expectations for the Fed to slow down rate hikes are being held back by tough statements from Fed officials. All of which put downward pressure on oil prices.

“The Covid-19 situation in China continues to haunt the market. Over-optimism was reflected in oil prices after signs that China was about to reopen. But now, the reality is exactly the opposite of that expectation,” said fund manager John Kilduff of Again Capital LLC.

Fears of a global recession are also a big theme in the oil market this week. “There are many concerns about an economic slowdown. The trend of oil prices seems to be tilted to the downside,” said Avatrade expert Naeem Aslam.

World gold prices fell in the session on Friday (November 18), after some US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials gave more tough signals on monetary policy. The SPDR Gold Trust “shark” had another net selling session in gold – a sign of caution about the gold price outlook.

At the close of the session in the New York market, the spot gold price fell by 9.5 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of more than 0.5%, to 1,752.2 USD/oz. For the whole week, gold price fell about 0.9%.

This price is equivalent to about 52.5 million VND/tael if converted at the USD exchange rate sold at Vietcombank.

Gold prices fell after Fed officials continued to signal that they would continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation.

Gold prices also faced downward pressure when the dollar gained again, with the Dollar Index closing the week at nearly 107 points, up 0.3% compared to the previous session. For the whole week, the index gained more than 0.6%.

Gold has gained about 7% so far this month, as markets expect inflation in the US may have peaked and the Fed will slow rate hikes. The market is now betting that the 87% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, instead of by 0.75 percentage points, in the December meeting.

However, downward pressure has returned in recent days, as Fed officials have had tough words, curbing these market expectations.

If calculated from the peak set in March, the price of gold has so far dropped 15%, after 6 consecutive rate hikes by the Fed and an increase of about 11.5% of the dollar since the beginning of the year.

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