“Data shows $69K is not the Bitcoin top of this cycle”

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2021-12-27 03:52:11

PlanB mentioned historical data to explain why $69,000 is not the top of BTC this time around.

The price of Bitcoin has plummeted over the past few weeks. BTC has dropped $20,000 since its most recent peak of $69,000 in November.

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This has caused a lot of speculation in the crypto community, is it a downtrend?

However, PlanB believes this $69,000 is not the top of the cycle this time around.

PlanB $69K is not the best

November has historically been one of BTC’s best months, and the 2021 release didn’t disappoint at first, with bitcoin up 140% since the start of the year.

Then the situation started to change rapidly and BTC, last week dropped $16,000 in a few hours to $42,000. Currently, BTC is at around $49,000, which means about 30% lower than ATH.

Such a significant price drop in less than a month has spooked many investors, who have begun to regard $69,000 as a cycle top and predict an impending downtrend.

However, PlanB doesn’t think so. The famous analyst known as the creator of the stock-to-flow pattern, recently asserted that when a typical downtrend occurs that means an 80% correction.

In other words, this would cause BTC price to drop to $14,000, well below the 2017 ATH of $20,000 and, more importantly, below the 200-week moving average.

As the chart below demonstrates, Bitcoin has never dropped below its 200-week moving average in history, and PlanB believes that. “will never happen”.

Increasing BTC Acceptance

Back in 2017 and especially in 2018, BTC actually entered a prolonged downtrend, during which the price of BTC dropped about 80%.

However, there are some very significant differences between now and then, especially regarding the adoption of BTC in real life.

In 2017-2018, no giant corporations, such as Tesla, Square (Block) and MicroStrategy poured billions of dollars into BTC and kept it on their balance sheets.

There are no Bitcoin ETFs, either spot or futures in any country.

No country has legalized BTC. None of the banks acknowledge crypto or offer a crypto example, let alone file their own BTC ETF.

Two ‘giants’ collaborate to launch Bitcoin ETF

The 2017 uptrend was mainly driven by retail investors who didn’t want to miss out on any profits.

However, now, retail investors are no longer dominating the market, instead the aforementioned institutions, large corporations or even banks seem to be the main driving force.

Last but not least, bitcoin is gaining widespread adoption as a payment method.

All of the above contributes to PlanB’s claim that it will be more of a challenge for the bulls who are expecting an 80% drop in the big short.


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