Important Events at the Beginning of the Year

Important Events at the Beginning of the Year

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2023-03-16 11:56:42

Market situation

The end of 2022 is a year of bad results for financial markets. Overall, the Nasdaq is down 33.51%, the S&P 500 is down nearly 20% and the Dow is down 8.93% over the past year.

Similarly, the crypto market also had a deep decline year. BTC has dropped 65% within the past year. Smaller altcoins have larger drop rates. Compared to the most recent peak, BTC as well as altcoins have also dropped by more than 65%.

The first week of 2023, the market will receive the announcement of the meeting minutes of the last December meeting. In the post-meeting press conference, the Fed emphasized continuing to raise interest rates this year and is expected to increase it to 5.25% and between until 2024. However, the market is still waiting for new updates. in the official meeting minutes.

Besides, payroll company ADP will also publish documents related to employment and salary. The company’s data will have a different perspective on the job market.

Next week, there will also be an announcement of the CPI on January 12. This is the index that will affect the Fed’s interest rate decision at the meeting in early February. Fedwatch futures show that investors are leaning towards the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25%, the rest think the Fed will increase by 0.5% at the February meeting. If unemployment rises, it may cause the Fed to consider raising rates slightly or stopping raising interest rates.

Expectations for this year with crypto

Look at the history of BTC’s price movement from its inception to the present. On a four-year cycle, the market in 2022 shares many similarities with 2018 and 2023 will likely have many similarities with 2019. If this is true then we will likely see a prosperous and positive 2023. Over the past year, the market has had a slight growth.

Altcoin Daily also shared about the overall growth of BTC price year by year. With this table will compare the price at the beginning of the year with the end of the year for a general assessment of the increase or decrease. This share shows that 2022 is already a down year. Historically, the price of BTC has not had two consecutive years of decline so hopefully this is still true. And in 2023, it is possible that the price will recover slightly.

Another share on Twitter from the account @rektcapital considers each cycle will have four years numbered from 1 to 4. If according to this calculation, in 2023 if the same as the previous two cycles, the BTC price will have a slight recovery. .

With that, this 2023 will be the year closer to the BTC halving event. The next halving event is expected to take place around May 2024. This time will cause the amount of BTC generated in each block mined to be halved, ie the source is also halved. So, after the previous halving events, there will be a BTC bull season. At some point, the halving event will no longer be a major event affecting the price of BTC. However, in the next one or two halvings, Thuan believes that it still has a significant impact on the price of BTC.

Some people are very bullish on the price of BTC. As Joe Burnett points out the possibilities for BTC to become digital gold, a store of value and even the dollar, its price can reach very high levels from $500,000 to $23 million or more. go up.

Blockware’s analysis also shows the company’s massive optimism for BTC. The Blockware company also pointed out that the market capitalization of BTC is still very very small compared to other markets such as real estate, gold, stocks, etc.

Investors who choose to store assets such as gold, stocks, real estate, etc. have a certain percentage they store not because they really need the use value of these assets. For example, real estate to live in, … But there are investors for other purposes. Blockware said that, if a portion of investors in this group of investors investing in these traditional assets switch to investing in BTC, the price of BTC could grow very high to more than $28 million.

Blockware’s conversion calculation may not be realistic but if they miscalculated 90% of BTC’s upside potential as it accounts for a fraction of the capitalization of other assets, the price of BTC could also go up to $280,000. We look at the potential of BTC to be very large when a part of the capitalization of other markets moves to BTC. This is also an optimistic view for the long-term future as BTC continues to grow.

Company Update DCG

After FTX filed for bankruptcy and DCG’s Genesis company was affected. The Earn product segment, a partnership between Gemini and Genesis, has also stopped allowing users to withdraw money from mid-November until now.

Yesterday, Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini exchange sent a letter and publicized it on Twitter to Digital Currency Group (DCG) CEO Barry Silbert on January 2, 2022 calling for direct negotiations for the best solution for the users of the Earn product. .

Winklevoss said in the letter that he wrote it on behalf of 340,000 Gemini Earn users. Winklevoss states: “These users are not just numbers on a spreadsheet, they are real people. Essentially, Gemini already offers users to earn up to 8% interest on crypto and the company Genesis Global Capital is a major partner providing this service. The letter also states that Genesis owes Gemini Earn users $900 million. Gemini also established a creditor committee to take money from Genesis with Houlihan Lokey as financial advisor.

In the open letter, Winklevoss claimed that Gemini and he had tried to resolve the issue with Silbert several times and on December 25, 2022. The letter also criticized such a bad thing happening because Silbert was in charge. DCG owes its own subsidiary Genesis $1.675 billion. Italy here, Gemini criticizes DCG and Genesis for mixing money together. Winklevoss further emphasized that the funds are used by DCG to drive greedy share buybacks, illiquid venture capital, and Grayscale NAV kamikaze trading. Mr. Silbert did not deny the loan, only saying that the number was incorrect.

Winklevoss criticized Silbert for using his understanding of bankruptcy proceedings to create a legal wall between Genesis’s ill effects from DCG. At the same time, Silbert has deliberately delayed resolving his issue with users of the Earn product. Finally, Gemini requested that Silbert meet face-to-face to work and resolve the liquidity issues by January 8, 2023.

Facing the current situation, Gemini is also under great pressure from its users, especially users affected by the Earn product. It is possible that the criticism that Mr. Silbert is seeking to delay to avoid the possibility of DCG having to sell a part of assets that could be its subsidiaries such as Coindesk, Foundry, or even Grayscale are at risk.

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