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2023-02-28 15:47:55
Market situation
After many days of continuous decline, US stocks had a bullish closing session yesterday. Oil contract fell slightly to 71 USD/barrel. Gold rose to 1800 USD/ounce.
Bitcoin rose slightly to $17,200. Altcoins are mostly green. Recently, the correlation of BTC and stocks has decreased.
Update on FTX
Kevin O’Leary lost 15 million USD after the crash of FTX
Investor Kevin O’Leary, who has always spoken well of Sam even after the collapse of FTX, spoke to CNBC. He is also a former brand ambassador of FTX also admitting that he is a victim of FTX.
He invested about 9.7 million USD in cryptocurrency and this money is on FTX exchange. Besides, he also invested 1 million USD in FTX company and received shares. The total amount of the loss was more than 10.7 million USD.
When asked about the amount he was paid by FTX to be a brand ambassador for FTX, he replied that he received 15 million USD. More than $4 million, he said, was used to pay taxes and staff expenses. So Kevin O’Leary says his total loss is $15 million.
When O’Leary first started promoting FTX, he said that it was FTX’s compliance system that attracted him to invest in the crypto exchange. Therefore, the reporter also asked him if with his experience as well as the ability to access information that other investors, why is there a wrong appraisal. Kevin O’Leary said that he also invests in a group, which means that when other large organizations have invested, he also invests and believes in the appraisal of those big companies.
O’Leary and other celebrities, such as Tom Brady and Larry David, were sued by FTX investors, who argued that the exchange’s ambassadors should have worked more carefully.
Maxine Waters changes tone with Sam
House Finance Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters has changed her tune with Sam after facing a lot of public criticism. They suspect she is biased towards Sam because of their relationship.
She shared on Twitter that CNBC’s comments were untrue. The summons of Sam Bankman-Fried for the hearing is being considered, not discussed. At the same time, it is also possible that the House of Representatives will send a subpoena to ask Sam to attend the hearing on the next 13.
Sam crashes LUNA?
After a period of silence, Do Kwon, the head of LUNA shared on Twitter about Sam being investigated by various parties. The investigation he shared that the investigations revolved around Sam’s market pricing.
Do Kwon also asked companies like Genesis Trading that loaned FTX/Alameda 1 billion UST and Alameda borrowed 9 figures in bitcoin from Voyager. Through this, he wants to hypothesize that Sam used the money to depeg UST and attack LUNA. Concerned people on Twitter say that this assumption is not reasonable because Genesis and Voyager companies do it to harm themselves. It seems that Do Kwon is trying to shift all the blame and attention to Sam Bankman-Fried. But in fact, the way LUNA and UST work has certain flaws.
However, the possibility that Do Kwon talked about is entirely possible. Before founding FTX, Sam was trading profitably from the price difference between exchanges. Many people suspect that the person who was told by CZ that there was suspicious activity on the Binance exchange and was locked is Sam’s account. It is hypothesized that Sam was the person who participated in the collapse of LUNA and UST, but it is also possible that he himself did not anticipate its effects.
The market is in a depressed zone
Crypto goes into winter and continues to fall with events like the collapse of LUNA and then FTX making investors panic and fear. The on-chain data also reflects the same situation.
First, the NUPL indicator shows that BTC price is in a panic zone, surrendering. On-chain metrics are also data for further reference. This price zone, the NUPL indicator shows it to be a good buy zone.
Bitcoin profit rate has also entered the green zone since September, and is now close to the top of this zone with 53% BTC profit rate. Historically, when the BTC profit rate enters the green zone, the market is in the doldrums and is a buy zone.
The Bitcoin Realized HODL Ratio reflects the amount of BTC moved. This indicator is also located in the green zone, which is a BTC buy zone when the market has largely cooled down.
Next, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple Index is the quotient of BTC generated in USD per day given the average number of BTC generated over 365 days. This indicator is also entering the green zone, which is a good area to buy for long-term accumulation. The Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio, an overall measure of whether miners’ spending is profitable or not. Without exception, this indicator also shows the amount of BTC miners sold without profit. Many small mining pools show that miners are also depressed and some leave the market.
The collapse of FTX makes investors want to store more BTC themselves. BTC continues to leave exchanges over time, the number of BTC on exchanges continues to decrease such as Bybit, Kucoin, Coinbase, Gemini, …
However, there is an exception Binance exchange has an increase in the number of BTC on the exchange. When FTX collapsed, a certain amount of BTC left the exchange, but after that, the amount of BTC was loaded back. The number of BTC on Binance is already higher than it was before the FTX crash (orange line). With Thuan has always set the principle of self-storage crypto. Exchanges are only for trading, not for storing crypto.
The Wyckoff price model also shows that BTC price is in an accumulation zone. This model was proposed by Richard Wyckoff (1873-1934). He is one of the pioneers of modern technical analysis, the founder of the Wall Street Journal and a traditional stock market trader. It was in the analysis of these markets that diagrams became popular.
The structure of a typical Wyckoff chart consists of a series of sharp bullish and bearish price movements that form an extended accumulation or distribution pattern. The main rule here is to sell gradually during the distribution period and buy gradually during the accumulation period.
Distribution is a sideways market trend that takes place after a long uptrend. It is a period where smart traders and large institutions try to sell their positions without pushing the price down too much. Accumulation is a sideways market trend that occurs after a pulling downtrend. long. That is the period when traders and large institutions try to buy positions without causing the price to rise too much.
As the Beincrypto analyst pointed out, BTC price is currently near the bottom of accumulation. After that, it will create a support zone and from there the price goes up. However, the definition of the second dump (spring) is required to be lower than the first one.
These are the on-chain data and price patterns in question. Thuan provides for further reference and hopes to be useful to you.
Other information:
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A US bankruptcy judge involved in the bankruptcy of Celsius Networks has ordered Celsius to return $44 million worth of cryptocurrency to custodial account users. Celsius’s argument is that the pool of customers using custody products maintains ownership of their crypto assets. Celsius acts only as a hosting provider. Therefore, these funds belong to the customer, not C’s property. Other assets and liabilities will be handled later.
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Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson talked about privacy and blockchain and they plan to have secure smart contracts in the future. Cardano is geared towards participating in a regulated business, there will be privacy requirements as one regulated business requires you to provide some personally identifiable information and the other has privacy laws stipulate that the contract must keep such information confidential. Additionally, Cardano will develop its own network stablecoin to participate in Defi.
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