One More Bitcoin ETF – Plan B Is Right Again

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2022-01-01 10:22:54

One more Bitcoin Future ETF in action

Bitcoin yesterday had a slight drop to around $60,000. And altcoins also fell, but there were also some slight increases. The falling market could be due to profit taking and no bad news. The big news is that Valkyrie’s second Bitcoin Future ETF has officially been traded on the US stock exchange. In the coming time, many similar funds will be approved and operated.

The share price of the Bitcoin Future ETF is based on the CME Bitcoin futures contract price. And the BTC futures contract price on the CME exchange will be based on the actual BTC price being traded on the market. So, the share price of Bitcoin Future ETF funds will have a certain lag compared to the Bitcoin price.

In the United States, Bitcoin is not considered a security but an asset. So investment funds that want to invest in trusts will need to invest in Bitcoin indirectly through ETFs. As for individuals, investing directly in Bitcoin will be more profitable than investing in ETFs.

On-chain situation

Bitcoin price correction resulted in BTC profit rate reduced to 95%.

Other on-chain indices also saw slight corrections such as NUPL, RHOOL Ratial or Market Cap To Thermocap, etc. In October, Plan B was correct when it reached the price of 63,000 USD.

The amount of Bitcoin deposited on the exchange is generally still larger than the amount of BTC deposited on the exchange. Despite taking profits, the buying force was strong enough to absorb the amount of BTC pushed to the floor to take profits.

As for Ethereum yesterday, the withdrawal amount was larger than the deposit, but the difference in deposit and withdrawal was not significant. The long-term trend is that ETH is being withdrawn from the exchange faster than BTC.

The overnight Funding rate of derivatives exchanges also cooled. The volume of orders for futures contracts also decreased but remained at a high level.

Looking back since BTC went into the early winter of 2018, the amount of BTC on exchanges increased. But after the Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the amount of BTC on the exchange began to decrease rapidly. This led to a decrease in market supply and Bitcoin starting a strong rally from early 2021. The supply-reducing effects of the Bitcoin halving usually take some time to have an impact on the price.

A share on CryptoQuant also showed more clearly the correlation between the amount of BTC on exchanges (blue line) with price over time.

In addition, miners have also increased their BTC storage since the strong sell-off earlier in the year. Miners continue to accumulate BTC to date. Although there was a previous sale when China banned mining activities in this country.

The time when miners moved in mass due to the implementation of a ban on mining by the Chinese government caused a sudden drop in the mining speed. It is an opportunity to disperse BTC mining speed away from China and move to other countries including the US. Up to now, the mining speed has recovered quickly and the US is also the country with the largest mining speed.

To date, the Bitcoin price has surpassed $63,000 and is in line with Plan B’s prediction. At the same time, the Stock to Flow (S2F) model is still holding true for the BTC price.

If BTC follows the 2012 price pattern, BTC price could reach $288,000. Or it could also hit $100,000 if following the 2017 model. Here are two BTC price predictions that have been made and we will see where BTC can reach.

Other information:

  • Recently, Binance’s BNB coin is having a proposal to burn coins similar to ETH. Binance launched BNB in ​​2017 with a total supply of 200 million BNB. The initial function of BNB is for users to pay transaction fees on the exchange as well as enjoy some incentives such as referral commissions. Later, BNB was extended to use on Binance Smart Chain as well. Currently, Binance deducts a portion of the collected BNB to burn quarterly until it reaches a total supply of 100 million BNB. Therefore, if the proposal to burn copper is passed, the total supply of BNB could drop to less than 100 million VND.

  • The SEC’s case against Ripple, which has been approved by the judge, will be extended by two months as required by the SEC. This means the lawsuit could last until May 2022. This news is not good for Ripple and especially the price of XRP. Many are expecting XRP to grow if the lawsuit ends well.

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