President Putin is too demanding when he makes a request for negotiation

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2022-05-19 14:21:30

Market situation

Bitcoin price continues to fluctuate around $38,000. Altcoins are also not very volatile.

Despite the drop in price, miners show no signs of selling. In the chart below, if BTC in miners’ wallets moves to the exchange, the blue bar will go up, but we haven’t seen this lately.

Long-term investors also continue to hold BTC, with no signs of selling (red lines at lows).

The selling force mainly came from short-term investors. There are short-term investors who accept even selling at a loss. This can be seen when the blue line (below) has many times been below zero.

In general, despite the decrease in price, the number of BTC on exchanges continues to decrease. BTC is still withdrawn from the exchange more than the amount deposited on the exchange.

A share of therationalroot on Twitter said that, by their calculation, the average BTC purchase price of short-term investors is currently $ 46,400. The price that can temporarily hold this group of investors is on average 35.3% and the worst market, the acceptable price of this investment group is $ 27,800.

US stocks had the biggest drop since October 2020. The biggest drop was Nasdaq, down 3.62%. Futures were more upbeat and slightly up.

War tensions increase, adverse economic effects continue

The main influence that caused stocks to drop was the increasing political tension between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin of Russia made the request during the negotiations between the two countries. The two main and most important requirements are the conditions for an immediate cessation of war. That is Ukraine must change its national constitution and never join NATO. The second important condition, Russia requires Ukraine to recognize Crimea as Russia’s and recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as two independent countries. However, many people think that it is difficult to get Ukraine’s approval. Because the war happened and caused a lot of damage, if Ukraine accepts these two conditions, then their struggles over the past time are meaningless.

To date, the Russian stock exchange has remained closed and the website of Sberbank has stopped working. There are two conflicting sources of information on this incident. Russia’s central bank initially delayed and then confirmed the Moscow Exchange would remain closed today as the impact of global sanctions sent the ruble to a record low against the dollar. . Sberbank’s London-listed shares fell 70% amid a massive sell-off in Russian stocks like Lukoil, which trades on the London Stock Exchange. Some other sources say that the Russian stock exchange has been attacked by a group of hackers. These two sources have not been verified.

There is a Russian government document making these rounds leading some to suggest that the country is preparing to disconnect from the global Internet. According to an article from Router seven months ago about Russia experimenting with the use of the intranet and this is Russia’s pre-preparedness for the risk of economic sanctions.

However, in general, we still see huge economic damage to both Russia, Ukraine and allies that place sanctions such as the US, and the EU.

A series of large companies have left or temporarily stopped operating in Russia such as Cocacola, Nikes, etc. However, McDonald’s company continues to operate and has not yet commented on their decision.

Western countries and the United States are also affected because Russia is also the second largest oil exporter in the world and an important source of oil for Europe. Although the United States produces the largest amount of oil in the world, its consumption is even larger. So the US is also an oil importer.

Oil price is already more than 120 USD/barrel, it is predicted that if oil price rises above 150 USD/barrel, inflation will increase 2%. The Russian embargo caused oil prices to rise and all countries were greatly affected. However, the United States has announced that it will ban imports of Russian oil, a move that would cut US annual imports by about 8%. Britain also announced plans to phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year. Similarly, the European Union also announced Russia’s plan to cut fossil fuels.

In the current situation, the Fed is still expected to raise rates by 0.25% at its next two-week meeting. Interest rate futures still show that the majority of participants expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% in the coming weeks and subsequent hikes.

During the war between Russia and Ukraine, some people or legislators who don’t like BTC take advantage of this event to attack BTC, crypto and say that Russia can use BTC, crypto to circumvent the sanctions of Western countries. Yesterday, the CEOs of Binance and Coinbase also stated that at the moment this is not possible. However, the CEOs of both exchanges pointed out that the capitalization of BTC and crypto is currently too small compared to the Russian economy. Currently, Russia’s annual exports are already half of BTC’s market capitalization. Another reason Russia doesn’t want to use cryptocurrency is that it’s too easy to track. And governments around the world have been adept at tracking it down. So, there is no reason for Russia to use BTC and crypto to fight economic sanctions at the moment.

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