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2023-03-15 17:53:45
Market situation
US stocks fell yesterday in all three indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Futures on green stocks are light on Nas FUT, while Dow FUT and S&P FUT are mostly flat. Overall, 2022 is a bad year for the stock market. Gold and oil also fell slightly.
Similarly, the crypto market has been falling almost all day. BTC price fell to around 16,500 USD. In recent days, the crypto market has had a stronger selling force, partly due to the selling force to take losses to file tax returns of investors. The tax law applicable to crypto is unclear, so investors can sell at a loss in 2022 to reduce the amount of tax they need to pay, then they can buy back their crypto when entering 2023.
China has taken the first steps in easing the zero covid policy that has been in place for nearly three years. Second, the country’s government has announced that starting January 8, 2023, travelers will not need to be quarantined upon arrival in the mainland.
In addition, China said it would improve visa arrangements for foreigners entering the country to resume work, business, study, visiting relatives and other gatherings. The notice said the ability of Chinese nationals to travel abroad would be “resumed in an orderly manner”.
These changes of the Chinese government may come from strong objections from the people. Along with that, the country’s economy also suffered heavy losses, combined with the prolonged zero covid policy, making the situation worse. These are also positive moves not only the Chinese people but also other countries expect to resume the circulation of goods.
Along with this move, the US also enacted a law requiring all airline passengers aged 2 years and older traveling from China, Hong Kong or Macau to be required to be tested for Covid two days before departure to the US. . The request comes amid growing US concern that the widespread spread of the virus in the world’s most populous country could lead to new variants. Plus, US health officials say they have limited information about what’s happening in China.
The requirements, which apply regardless of nationality and immunization status, begin January 5. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also expanding its traveler tracking program for new Covid variants to include airports in Los Angeles and Seattle.
BTC option expires and MicroStrategy buys more BTC
This Friday at 8 UTC, there is a large amount of BTC options expiring. This is the last option expiration schedule of December as well as of 2022 and the volume is large, so investors are very interested. The maximum pain price is 18,500 USD, at this level the most traders will lose the most. The price of BTC yesterday was around 16,500 USD, quite far from the price of 18,500 USD, so the possibility of the price going up will be lower.
Michael Saylor’s company MicroStrategy recently added to its BTC stockpile 2,395 Bitcoin for $42.8 million between November 1 and December 21 through its subsidiary MacroStrategy, according to a filing with the SEC.
Last Thursday, the company sold 704 Bitcoins for $11.8 million with the accounting purpose of increasing the loss in the transaction to make up for the previous capital gain.
Then on Saturday, the company purchased another 810 Bitcoin for $13.6 million, bringing its total holdings to 132,500 Bitcoin.
During this time, MicroStrategy also sold shares of the company and raised $46.4 million. Likely, MicroStrategy spends part of the money from selling shares to buy and buy more BTC. MicroStrategy raised a lot of money through issuing bonds to buy BTC. So their long-term goal is still storing BTC and will take profits at the appropriate time. Both to collect profits as well as to pay their bonds and loans maturing.
Update on FTX
New information from the FTX case is that Judge Ronnie Abrams has withdrawn himself from the case. She withdrew in part because of public pressure about her relationship with FTX possibly favoring the SBF and possible conflict. Judge Abrams revealed that her husband Greg Andres is a partner with Davis Polk & Wardwell, a law firm where he has worked since June 2019 that had advised FTX in 2021 on the BlockFi acquisition.
Replacing Ms. Ronnie was Judge Lewis Kaplan. He will be the one to directly hear the case of SBF right at the time of receipt, including the earliest court hearing.
And SBF will appear in court on the afternoon of January 3, this is an opportunity for SBF to plead guilty before being tried. Currently or partners Caroline and Gary Wang have pleaded guilty and testified that they followed the orders of the SBF. It is possible that the SBF will plead guilty in the next trial to have the rights to negotiate with the court and receive clemency.
During the time after FTX filed for bankruptcy, there were movements of money out of FTX. First, the US government required an asset freeze for disposal. Next, the Bahamas government also moved about $ 400 million in crypto to hold for the victims. However, at the same time, there was also a hacker attack that stole between $ 370 million and $ 400 million, confusing many people because of the move by the Bahamas government. Therefore, the court has asked for a clear investigation of this amount to pay the victims.
On Wednesday there were also several Alameda ETH wallets that converted some ETH to BTC worth about $600,000. However, it is not clear who moved the money. We will update with more information as more information becomes available.
While government agencies are lining up to sue FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, the group of former customers has been working to get their money back first. Because usually victims with FTX collateral will be prioritized for compensation, users who leave money on FTX will have to follow. As a result, these individuals filed a class action lawsuit initiated by four individuals seeking to recover their claim.
The lawsuit was filed on December 27 in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the County of Delaware. The four plaintiffs claim to represent the entire group of former FTX customers, which may amount to 1 million individuals. What the lawsuit seeks to achieve is the preemptive right to return digital assets held by FTX US or FTX.com to its customers.
This group of customers argues that FTX user agreements do not allow the platform to use customer funds for its own purposes, including borrowing or using it for operating expenses. According to the complaint, any withdrawal of customer funds from an account constitutes an “unacceptable combination, embezzlement, misuse or conversion of customer assets”. Therefore, they should be given the same priority for compensation as mortgage victims.
Can Solana survive the crash of FTX?
Solana is a project that has been invested and supported by SBF. The collapse of FTX and the fraud of SBF also indirectly affected Solana quite a lot when the market was bewildered, afraid and lost confidence.
Several major Solana NFT projects have recently left the network. DeGods and Y00ts, Solana’s flagship projects, will leave the Solana network and migrate to the Ethereum and Polygon networks.
Up to this point, the amount locked on DeFi of the Ethereum network is still at the top and accounts for nearly 60% of the total value. Then there are other networks such as Tron network, BSC, Arbitrum, Polygon, …
The amount of lock on Solana network DeFi has decreased and is still very small. To date, the Solana network lockout on DeFir is about $203 million. This number is down 98% from its peak of $10.17 billion in November 2021. As can be seen, a lot of DeFi projects have left Solana.
Along with that, the price of Solana has also dropped a lot. Since the beginning of 2022, Solana has decreased by more than 96%. These are not good signs for Solana.
Not only Solana and any altcoin is at risk of being displaced. Many altcoins used to be in the top 10, but through each cycle this ranking changes continuously. With the exception of BTC and ETH, history shows that any altcoin may never return to the top 10.
Each growing season will have a lot of new projects born. But not many projects can survive especially when winter comes. Thuan still believes the most in the two big coins, BTC and ETH, until history changes. Therefore, in investing, there is a need for flexibility, especially in the constantly changing crypto market.
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