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I am an investor with almost 3 years in the crypto market. I spend most of my time researching the financial market in general and the cryptocurrency market in particular through analysis from celebrities to other big names in the industry.
With special occasions like the end of the year, it is impossible for me to ignore the reports of the big names in the industry. This article is what I have concluded after reading more than 300 pages of research articles, projections for 2023 of the world’s leading banks and investment funds.
Big funds are also struggling
Unlike 2020-2021, instead of a great year, 2022 is a year with a series of events happening to the cryptocurrency market.
The shocking hack of the Vietnamese game – Axie Infinity lost more than half a billion dollars in assets ($624M). Next, Terra (LUNA & UST) and FTX, two billion-dollar empires ranked in the Top of the market collapsed to the surprise of many people, resulting in a chain of dominoes crashing in the market.
Famous investment fund Three Arrows Capital declared bankruptcy because of Terra. Voyager Digital went bankrupt because of $1 billion in debt and other large lending projects like Celsius, BlockFi also fell.
A mess appeared. As of the time of writing, many other names in the market are still in the situation of “Thousands of pounds hanging hair”.
Of course, not only the cryptocurrency market, the world economy has also experienced a “brutal” year with a wave of layoffs since the heat of inflation increased, forcing the Fed to begin to intervene with interest rate hikes. That makes not only me, but the whole financial market have to hold their breath every time the Fed makes a decision.
I have tried “investigating” about the business of Institutions and Investment Funds and here are some of the information I have gathered:
- Hashed, a well-known cryptocurrency investment fund from Korea, lost $3.5 billion from Terra – what Economic Times called a “massacre” in the cryptocurrency market.
- Hashed is not alone, Delphi Digital Investment Fund does not disclose specific numbers but LUNA coin accounts for 13% of their portfolio. Looking at the percentage is enough to see how much they lost.
- In addition, Binance once invested $ 3 million in LUNA, but after that “massacre”, CZ (Binance CEO) only had $2000 left.
- Multicoin Capital was more bitter when hit from the liquidity crisis due to the FTX crash that wiped out 55% of assets.
Although I was not a victim of any of the above crashes, the part of the assets that I “stored as my possession” was affected by the rhythm of the market.
What an unforgettable year!
After a year with many fluctuations and losses, how are investment fund organizations to welcome the new year 2023?
What are the big names thinking about 2023?
Closing the turbulent 2022, I spent a lot of time contemplating market developments to find a direction for myself in the new year and of course with a habit of reading research articles, I couldn’t ignore it. Reports and projections from the big names in the financial markets.
The original reports will have a lot of technical jargon that is difficult for some people to understand, so I will summarize the core content that those organizations have covered.
The detailed links to the reports I will leave at the end of the article, it would be great if you took the time to see in more detail what they are thinking about the financial markets.
The first report I was interested in was from BlackRock, the world’s largest fund management organization with over 10 trillion dollars that has a bleak outlook for 2023 and does not expect a period of strong growth (Bull Market) to back in 2023 with a message to get used to living with inflation above 2%.
We expect to become more aggressive with risk assets in 2023 at some point but not now.
Originally from Blackrock:
The period of stable economic and inflation is over. Greater macroeconomic and market volatility is underway. Recession is warned when banks are trying to control inflation. This led us to reduce the proportion of stocks in developed markets. We expect to become more aggressive with risk assets in 2023 at some point but not now. And by that time, we won’t see the market as strong as in the past. That is why it is necessary to change investment tactics.
Rather than confident a 2023 recovery in the face of signs the Fed is cutting rates, Goldman Sachs expects modest global growth of 1.8% due to challenges from the recession in Europe and an uncertain period. China reopened.
However, there is an interesting fact, the forecast from Goldman Sachs is modest but at a higher level of global growth expectations than the rest of the banks.
It seems that the insiders – the leading groups of the financial economy, are all quite pessimistic.
JP Morgan Chase
Next, I went to the report of the largest bank in America – JP Morgan with a quote right on the first page that summarizes the whole article.
A bad year for the economy, a better year for the markets.
Short and concise!
After getting perspectives from the 3 big players in the traditional market, I reached out to the names in the crypto market. First, to see if they are expecting 2023 to be similar to the traditional bigwigs. Second, I want to see where they will be in this 2023.
Similar to JP Morgan, Coinbase’s position is reflected on the front page of the report:
Events in 2022 will shape the crypto market in the years to come.
More specifically, when I got to page 5 of the report, Coinbase believes that the bad things in the market are not over yet, at least for a few more months in 2023 due to the impact of the crashing events of the year. 2022.
Also, reading the Coinbase report, I noticed a very interesting point and I “nodded” to it:
“Many long-term investors find the market cyclical. Instead of leaving at such disheartening times, they are now consolidating their knowledge and holding on to prepare for the future.”
That said, the game will now become much more intense because everyone is trying to become “Old Wolf”.
Besides the speculations about the market situation, Coinbase also makes other predictions such as:
- Institutional lending will tend to thrive.
- NFT will be more mature with more features and uses.
- Trends into cryptocurrencies of real-life external assets (RWAs).
- Experiencing a crazy growth season with many low-quality projects, in the coming time, capital will flow to projects with quality Tokenomics operating model design.
The Delphi Digital Foundation projects a vision that 2023 is the accumulation phase. The uptrend if at the earliest can happen between 2023. The higher probability will take place in 2024 – 2025.
Besides, the potential game segment, but 2023 is not the year for them. Instead, infrastructure-class projects will be the highlight of the year.
Things I learned after reading a series of reports
After reading through a series of reports from major hedge funds from the traditional to the crypto market, I have noticed remarkable similarities between them.
Almost everyone looks at 2023, which is mostly a year of accumulation, the market has not been able to prosper immediately after the “wounds” caused by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the projects in the market. The crypto market was and still is.
Personally, I agree with this thought. Historically, to bring inflation down to 2%, the Fed took about 2 years. Now, things may not take that long to change, but the important thing is that every wound takes time to heal.
Besides, as Coinbase said, it’s different from the previous bear market. Instead of everyone leaving, now they are all trying to consolidate their knowledge and try to stay in the middle of the harsh winter as market confidence grows stronger every day.
Everyone is trying to become “old wolf”. Therefore, the saying of BlackRock does not seem to be wrong even when used in this case “It is time to change investment tactics”.
If I am lazy, lazy now, perhaps the torment will follow me for the rest of my life.
Understanding the technologies that make Blockchain work better, studying NFT more deeply and skills for investment such as Onchain analysis, fundamental analysis will definitely be my priority this year. 2023.
Regarding this year’s investment, after reading through the reports, I keep the attitude that it’s not a rush year, just calmly search for gold.
Of course, the financial market in general and the cryptocurrency market in particular never sit idly by for easy predictions. If there are unexpected changes, surely my tactics will change as well. That is the inevitable flexibility that any investor should have.
This section is personal opinion. I would like to note that readers should only receive with the attitude of sharing instead of an investment advice.
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