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The price of privacy token XMR surged nearly 17% on the day on April 18, as it went from an intraday low of $233.7 to a high of $272.
Russia-Ukraine tensions could be the driving force behind the rise in prices of privacy coins, cryptocurrencies that protect users’ anonymity by obscuring transactions on their networks. Monero price has increased 46.2% since March 18.
Additionally, the uptrend of the Monero token has triggered a technical pattern that could help XMR continue its uptrend. The Decred token’s 50-day moving average (yellow wave) is likely to move above the 200-day EMA (green wave), forming a golden cross pattern.
Daily chart of XMRUSD with golden cross and MACD. Source: Tradingview.com
Ultimately, a sustained uptrend could see XMR reach $292, a price level that Monero tested as resistance between September 7, 2021 and November 15, 2021.
In addition, the MACD momentum oscillator displayed a bullish crossover for XMR on April 17. A bullish crossover forms when the MACD line (difference of the 12-day EMA and the line). 26-day EMA) moving above the MACD signal line (9-day EMA of MACD).
Furthermore, the bars on the MACD histogram are widening, showing Monero’s increasing bullish momentum.
XMR’s RSI is likely to enter the overbought zone
The Monero token relative strength index moved near overbought zones on Monday. In detail, traders often consider the overbought RSI as a prelude to an upcoming trend reversal in favor of the bears. Therefore, an overbought RSI often triggers a sell-off.
The price could fall again if the RSI of XMR enters the overbought zone. Monero’s RSI is technically neutral, reaching 68.99 on the daily chart.
Daily chart of XMRUSD with RSI. Source: Tradingview.com
If the RSI becomes overbought, XMR could drop to $252, a price level that recovered Monero’s uptrend from November 21, 2021 to April 18. Furthermore, a market-wide sell-off could cause XMR price to drop to the support near $242.
Further downtrends could see XMR drop to support from the 20-day EMA (red wave) near $230.
Upcoming hard fork
On July 16, the hard fork of the Monero network will operate at block height of 2,668,888. The update involves increasing Monero’s ring size from 11 to 16, adding view tags, introducing bulletproofs, and changing fees.
Specifically, by increasing the number of ring signatures, Monero will help ensure better anonymous transactions. As a result, it will be more difficult to track transactions on Monero. Furthermore, view tags can reduce scan time by almost 40% and speed up wallet node synchronization.
#Monero has a network upgrade (hardfork) on July 16th 2022 at block 2668888.
Privacy and performance will be improved!
— John Foss (@johnfoss69) April 17, 2022
The update will also introduce Bulletproofs, a zero-knowledge system for Monero that ensures faster verification and encryption.
At the time of writing, XMR is trading at $266.3, up 10.28% on the day.
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